Why defining your desired outcomes before writing can help you make better decisions about your nonfiction book.
Call it a hazard of the job, but I wouldn't be a proper social scientist if I wasn't looking at every claim and asking, How would you know?
Not how do you know, but how would you know?
In other words, presented with a research question, what would it take to convince you that your answer was true? What evidence would get you there? What evidence wouldn't?
This is where research design starts. As a hypothetical. What would it take? And then, how do I get as close as possible to that?
Maybe that's a little abstract. So, in the weeds a bit, let's say you want to know what's primarily driving the stark drop-off in sales in nonfiction publishing. (Hi, it's me. I really want to know.)
There's a lot of speculation based on individual experiences or snippets of data. Some ideas include: the rise of podcasts as an alternate information medium; a drop-off in male reading levels; the heaviness of the world and daily news generally; the rise of LLMs; publishers pulling back on nonfiction marketing; an increasingly decentralized media landscape; just a regular publishing cycle; and more.
Or maybe some combination of all of the above.
Cool. But also, wildly unsatisfying.
Because these are all intriguing possibilities, but there is correlation and causation and also straight-up speculation. And none of these are the same thing.
So, how would we know? What data would we need? How much, from whom, over what time period, with what controls in place?
I, for one, would like to get my hands on a massive, direct-from-reader longitudinal survey dataset that tracks nonfiction reading habits alongside other changes in readers' lives over a decade or more. But that's just me.
This kind of analysis is essential in research, but it's useful in life as well. And in goal-setting in particular.
In research, we're asking what evidence would convince us that a claim is true. When it comes to our goals, we can ask a similar question: What evidence would convince us that we've achieved what we set out to do?
It's this background and training that makes me ask each author, after they've shared their publication purpose (their personal why), another question:
How would you know if you achieved it?
Because if you've thought critically enough to identify why you want to write a book, it's worth going one step further and considering what achieving that purpose would look like in real life, after the book comes out.
Not just as an abstract hypothetical in your head.
From Purpose to Outcomes
In my previous post on determining your purpose for writing a book, I suggested that aspiring nonfiction authors begin by identifying and ranking their motivations for writing a book.
The next step is to identify the outcomes that would indicate you've achieved that purpose. These are the concrete results you hope to see, which can then inform the goals you pursue.
Sometimes, the answer is relatively obvious.
For example, if your primary purpose is to fulfill a lifelong ambition to publish a book, what outcome would satisfy that desire? Is seeing your name on a book spine enough? Or does a particular form of publication—trade, indie, or academic—matter?
Often, the answer is less straightforward.
If an author wants to reshape public understanding of an issue, cutting through existing myths and misunderstandings, what would constitute evidence of that change? Would seeing a change in how the media covers the issue be necessary? Would reader responses demonstrating changed viewpoints be sufficient? Would invitations to speak from activist organizations on your issue convince you?
All of these are possible outcomes, and identifying them gives you something concrete to work toward.
You can pursue publication in media spaces to get the word out about your take. You can build networks and relationships with organizations that might bring you in. You can share a newsletter on your ideas and get creative about soliciting reader feedback.
These are goals you can actively pursue in service to your ultimate purpose for writing the book.
Are Your Expectations Aligned with Your Purpose?
Sometimes, this exercise reveals expectations that don't quite align with the author's stated purpose.
For an author who says their primary goal is to make specialized research accessible to a general audience, but whose imagined success depends on receiving accolades in their academic networks, this is a mismatch worth exploring.
Would lack of attention from academic peers really constitute failure of purpose? If it would, is the author being honest with themselves about their purpose?
Because expectations left unexamined at the beginning of a project can lead to real disappointment on the other side of publication.
An author who says publication itself is a sufficient purpose, yet dreams of appearing on the New York Times bestseller list, is highly likely to be let down.
It's okay to have all kinds of hopes and dreams for your book. This is life! But you should also identify realistic outcomes that align with your purpose, rather than expecting your book to accomplish everything.
There's nothing wrong with wanting your book to sell well, receive attention, or open professional doors.
But it's worth asking whether those outcomes are central to your purpose, desirable additions to it, or expectations you've absorbed about what a successful book is supposed to look like.
Because if your expectations don't match your purpose, you have an opportunity to reconsider one or both before you've invested years in the project.
Let Your Desired Outcomes Guide Your Decisions
Understanding what you hope to accomplish doesn't guarantee that you'll achieve it.
Publishing involves plenty of factors outside an author's control. Books can exceed expectations in surprising ways, fail to find the audience their authors imagined, or have effects that don't become apparent for years.
But identifying your desired outcomes gives you a way to evaluate the decisions you'll make along the way.
It also narrows your focus to a few meaningful aims instead of an overwhelming array of ::waves hands:: all the things you might do to help your book succeed.
Not every opportunity is equally valuable. Not every measure of success is relevant to every author.
And not every book needs to accomplish the same things.
So, How Would You Know?
Knowing why you want to write a book is an important starting point. Knowing what achieving that purpose would look like gives you something concrete to work toward.
It won't tell you exactly how your publication journey will unfold, or guarantee that you'll be satisfied with the result.
But it can help you decide what matters, what to prioritize, and which opportunities are worth pursuing.
So, before you start making all the decisions involved in writing and publishing a book, it's worth asking yourself:
What outcomes would tell me I've achieved my purpose? How would I know?